I’ve been following the Oregon governor’s race very closely — partially because it’s my home state, but also because it’s a traditionally blue state where Republicans have a very real shot at flipping the governor’s mansion red for the first time since 1987, when the Oregon’s last GOP governor left office. The race is now rated a “toss-up” by both the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics and the Cook Political Report. (Both analysts downgraded the race from “Lean Democrat” in the last month and a half.)
Frustratingly, there’s been very little public polling available on the race — the most recent survey on FiveThirtyEight’s poll aggregator is from mid-August. The polling that is available shows Christine Drazan, the Republican, virtually tied with Tina Kotek, the Democrat, in the low 30s. Betsy Johnson, the unusually viable and well-funded Democrat-turned-independent — whose candidacy is often cited as one of the main reasons that Republicans have a real shot in 2022 — tends to trail ten points or so behind in the high teens or low 20s.
But there has been more recent local commentary on the race that can provide a glimpse into just how close things really are. Last week’s piece from the Portland-based KGW, titled “Oregon governor’s race could be a toss-up, experts say,” cites a number of political analysts discussing why “the race for governor is looking closer than ever.” One factor, as I mentioned above, is Johnson’s third-party bid — the conventional wisdom is that the former Democrat’s candidacy will hurt Democrats more than Republicans. (“There’s a frustration among Democrats about Betsy Johnson’s presence in there because they feel like she takes votes away from both of them but could potentially take more votes away from Tina Kotek,” Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report told KGW.) I think that’s probably more true than not, but I also wouldn’t neglect the possibility that aspects of Johnson’s candidacy could peel votes away from Republicans, too. Johnson has made crime a centerpiece of her campaign and has pulled lucrative endorsements from major police unions and dozens of district attorneys. Particularly in a blue state like Oregon, public safety is one of the GOP’s main pitches to voters, and Drazan has stressed the issue throughout her campaign. (Both Johnson and Drazan have pledged to work to repeal the state’s decriminalization of all drugs, which voters approved in a referendum in November 2020, despite the fact that Oregon has some of the highest rates of drug and alcohol abuse in the nation.) It’s possible that Johnson’s tough-on-crime campaign could dull the potency of Drazan’s candidacy.
Another sign of the race’s competitiveness is the infusion of large amounts of money into the state from national organizations affiliated with both major parties. Earlier this month, the Democratic Governors Association dumped another $1.25 million into Kotek’s campaign, bringing the total donations from the group to $3.1 million. Around the same time, the Republican Governors Association sent another $1 million to Drazan, bringing the total donations from the group up to nearly $2.6 million. As of September 19, the Oregonian reported, “Kotek has reported raising a total of $10.5 million since January 2021 and Drazan has reported raising a total of $9.3 million, according to state records.” That puts 2022 spending on track to break Oregon records: “The top trio of candidates in the 2022 race for Oregon governor have combined to raise over $30 million by mid-September, putting them on a path to smash the $40 million mark for a governor’s race set four years ago,” Oregon Capital Insider reported.
All signs point to a nail-biter in Oregon this November. Here’s hoping voters make the right decision.