From another reader:
Jonah –
I tend to agree that at the end of the day, Bush probably won’t win
Michigan. But there are two other factors to consider: Ralph Nader is on
the ballot in Michigan; and, Michigan has a gay marriage initiative. Now I
assume that the Bush people know the internals better than we do, and
they’ll spend there if it’s really competitive. But if Kerry leads there by
as little as 2-3 points, then given the strength shown by the
anti-gay-marriage folks in Missouri and Louisiana, I’d wonder whether that
turnout, combined with Nader on the ballot, might not be enough to push Bush
over the top.