On May 9, the Russian military treated its apologists to a vivid representation of its dismal state.
Russia’s May 9 Victory Day long ago became the functional equivalent of a day dedicated to commemorating the founding of the modern Russian state. Victory in World War II replaced international socialism as the origin myth of the Soviet state by the middle of the 20th century. Under Vladimir Putin, Victory Day — with its costumed participants and endless cascade of military hardware — became a nostalgic facsimile for national greatness.
After 1991, Victory Day was generally not accompanied by a full-scale military parade, but Putin revived the practice. For over a decade, the Russian Federation’s commemoration of the “Great Patriotic War” has looked a lot like Soviet-era pageants. But it did not look that way on May 9, 2023.
Victory Day in Moscow more than a year after the inauguration of the Kremlin’s “special military operation” against Ukraine demonstrated how depleted the stores of Russian military hardware have become.
Only 8,000 military personnel marched past onlookers this year — down from 11,000 in 2022 and 14,000 in 2020. It was likely the smallest display since 2008, the year Putin revived the classic Victory Day parade. “Absent this year were other military vehicles, including BMP-3s and BMP-2s, as well as armored personnel carriers such as BTR-MDM, BMD-4M, and Boomerangs,” Newsweek reported. All the Buk surface-to-air missile systems were gone. So, too, were some of the most familiar motorized rifle brigades.
Last year, attendees were treated to an aerial flyby consisting of 77 fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters. Today, the usual airshow was abruptly canceled without explanation. The customary cavalcade of tanks was nowhere to be found. Gone were the T-72s, T-90s, and T-14 Armatas. In its place, Moscow could only marshal one decrepit, pre-war T-34 — a museum piece grimly illustrative of Russia’s diminished status as a great power.
Onlookers could still gawk at the mobile Rs-24 Yars nuclear-capable ballistic-missile system, the deterrent power of which Moscow routinely undermines by threatening its use only for those threats to be summarily ignored.
Russia has struggled to secure stable, lasting victories inside Ukrainian territory, but it has achieved remarkably durable successes in the information battlespace. There, a reliable contingent of apologists insists that an unequivocal Russian success on the battlefield is inevitable, if only because the alternative is unimaginable. This assessment had been aided by the fog of war and Russian opacity. On May 9, the Russian military treated its apologists to a vivid representation of its dismal state.
A rational proponent of the notion that Russia’s victory in Ukraine is a foregone conclusion might look upon this mortifying display and reassess. Perhaps we’ll soon learn if the Kremlin’s backers are capable of rationality.