The Corner

Politics & Policy

Pennsylvania Poll: Biden 49, Trump 44

President Donald Trump points a finger as he arrives to hold a campaign event in Allentown, Pa., October 26, 2020. (Leah Millis/Reuters)

In the final Pennsylvania poll of the 2020 presidential election conducted by Muhlenberg College on behalf of the newspaper Morning Call, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump 49 percent to 44 percent. The same pollster’s previous survey, conducted between October 13 and October 20, showed Biden leading Trump 51 percent to 44 percent.

In 2016, the final Muhlenberg/Morning Call poll—conducted right before Trump won Pennsylvania by 0.7 points—showed Hillary Clinton leading Trump 48 percent to 42 percent.

More polls of Pennsylvania will be released between now and Election Day, but at the moment the data suggest Biden is in a somewhat stronger position in the state than Clinton was in 2016.

Biden now leads Trump in the RealClearPolitics average of Pennsylvania polls 49.4 percent to 45.7 percent. In the final 2016 RCP average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton led Trump 46.8 percent to 44.7 percent.

FiveThirtyEight now gives Biden an 86 percent chance of winning Pennsylvania; in 2016, FiveThirtyEight gave Clinton a 77 percent chance of winning Pennsylvania.

As Sean Trende has written, it remains unclear whether pollsters have fixed the problems that caused them to underestimate support for Republicans and Trump. On the other hand, the Cook Political Report‘s David Wasserman reports that internal GOP and Democratic polls of Pennsylvania congressional districts show Trump “running 7-12 points behind his ’16 margins in nearly all corners” of Pennsylvania.

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