Personal incomes rose by 10.5 percent in April, far surpassing predictions of a 5.9 percent decline. The Senate’s economic-spending package put money in the hands of consumers just as they reduced their purchases by 13.6 percent due to the coronavirus shutdowns.
The data released by the Commerce Department today raise the possibility that a combination of higher disposable incomes and lower production will spur inflation after the pandemic. With supply chains disrupted and businesses upended, the rapid growth of monetary aggregates could mean more money will be chasing fewer goods, especially if the economy reopens in short order.
Predicting inflation has become a treacherous enterprise of late, as protracted low interest rates have coincided with persistently low inflation. Recent history suggests that prices will remain stable no matter the magnitude of economic stimulus. That being said, whereas the post-2008 fiscal and monetary stimulus replaced an endogenous credit contraction, this time around the credit contraction is exogenous — the result of COVID-19. Should that exogenous shock quickly recede, the massive economic stimulus could prove excessive.
In any event, it was warranted, and the risk of disinflation remains much higher than the risk of inflation.