Tomorrow’s vote in the House is obviously a huge moment for Speaker Ryan and President Trump. If the health-care bill passes, it will be a big personal victory for Ryan and mean that the Trump agenda has life in Congress, although the bill’s fate will be very uncertain in the Senate. If the bill fails, it will be a debacle. It will be a blow to Ryan and possibly loosen his grip on the Speakership, and could mean Trump’s priorities grind to a halt in Congress (since those priorities, both health care and tax reform, are dependent on reconciliation, there are only a couple of bites at the apple). Sometimes legislation is revived after an initial setback, and maybe Republicans will find a way to re-start on Obamacare repeal or re-gain momentum on tax reform. But it’s more likely that nothing big happens, which may poison Trump’s relationship with Congress and/or cause a turn to the New Yorkers.