A new poll out this morning shows both Democrats ahead of Republican incumbents in the two Senate runoff races in Georgia. The survey was conducted by SurveyUSA on behalf of local Georgia outlet 11Alive and surveyed 850 Georgia residents, most of whom are registered to vote and more than half of whom said they are likely to vote in the runoffs on January 5.
In one race, Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff has a marginal lead over Republican senator David Perdue, 50 percent to 48 percent. Aside from regular polling skepticism, this should be taken with a grain of salt; plenty of surveys ahead of the November 3 election showed Ossoff running ahead of Perdue, and the Democrat finished nearly 100,000 votes behind, even though Perdue failed to reach the 51-percent threshold to avoid a runoff.
In the other race — a special election for the Senate seat currently occupied by Republican Kelly Loeffler — Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock enjoys a more sizable advantage according to this new poll. Warnock received the support of 52 percent of respondents, compared with 45 percent for Loeffler. In the November 3 election, Warnock finished ahead of Loeffler 33 percent to 26 percent.
At 96 percent, Perdue has slightly more support among Republicans than does Loeffler, who has 92 percent support among Republican voters. Among respondents who say they voted for Donald Trump on November 3, 97 percent plan to back Perdue and 94 say they’ll vote for Loeffler. Meanwhile, Warnock has a bit more support among Democrats (97 percent) than Ossoff (94). Self-described moderate voters split slightly for the Democratic candidates in both races, three to two for Ossoff and two to one for Warnock.
On Twitter, New York Times analyst Nate Cohn said the polling of the runoffs thus far reminds him “of the GA-6 runoff polls back in 2017,” when Ossoff lost to Republican candidate Karen Handel in a contest for a House seat in Georgia’s sixth congressional district. “The D/R split in the primary beat the polls, including a variety of SurveyUSA polls (which peaked at Ossoff+7),” Cohn pointed out. Ossoff went on to lose that race by more than five points, despite his polling advantage.