A new poll at least suggests the peril that an independent Kyrsten Sinema bid presents for Democrats.
Kyrsten Sinema’s defection from the Democratic Party is embarrassing to the Democrats, but unless she is alienated further from her former party, it will be of little practical significance to control of the Senate or the balance of power on legislation, budgets, or judicial or other confirmations over the next two years. But 2024 is another matter entirely. Sinema’s term is up in 2024. Assuming she seeks reelection, she will have the power of incumbency. We do not yet know the political environment of 2024: Will Joe Biden still be president, and running again? Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee, or under indictment, or both? Will the economy be in better or worse shape than it is now? Will China invade Taiwan?
This much is already clear: Assuming that Sinema does not seek the Democrats’ nomination for the Senate, they will have to decide whether to support her anyway (as they do with, say, Angus King in Maine) or whether to run their own candidate. If they do, that could split the Democratic vote, and help Republicans. But further complications ensue: If a Democrat runs too far left and the Republicans nominate one of the Arizona GOP’s deep bench of nut cases, will there still be a path for Sinema to run down the middle and win?
Ruben Gallego, a progressive congressman who has been laying the groundwork to primary Sinema, possibly with the support of the Biden White House, is now in a delicate position: His party is convinced that he’d be an upgrade on Sinema in the Senate, but so long as she won’t go away and can’t be primaried, he needs to convince them that he won’t be throwing the seat away by running — yet, he also needs to convince Sinema’s donors and potential voters that she is the one helping Republicans. Enter Public Policy Polling. PPP, a progressive outfit known for polls that shape narratives about campaigns — sometimes in disastrously misleading ways — has a new poll out, which appears as if it was commissioned by Gallego or by someone sympathetic to him. PPP surveyed “678 Arizona voters on December 19th and 20th with a margin of error of +/-3.8%. Half of the interviews were conducted by phone and half were conducted by text.” The findings:
– Sinema continues to be unpopular, with only 31% of voters rating her favorably to 47% with a negative opinion for a net favorability of -16. Gallego’s favorability rating is a net 24 points better at +8 with 35% of voters rating him positively and just 27% holding an unfavorable view of him. To the extent Sinema has any popularity it’s mostly with conservatives at this point- Trump voters give her a 43/27 favorability rating while she comes in at 20/69 with Biden voters.
– A US Senate race with Kari Lake as the Republican candidate would be a toss up whether Sinema ran as an independent candidate or not. In a three way contest Lake would get 41% to 40% for Gallego with Sinema at just 13%. In a head to head race Gallego edges Lake 48-47. Although Sinema would not have a serious path to victory as an independent candidate she could have a spoiler effect since she gets 14% from Biden voters but only 9% from Trump voters.
– Gallego is a stronger candidate than Sinema head to head against Kari Lake. Sinema as an independent does four points worse against Lake, trailing by 3 points at 42-39 in contrast to Gallego’s one point advantage as a Democrat. Although Republicans may like Sinema at the moment that doesn’t actually extend to much willingness to vote for her against someone like Lake who even with loser stench from her defeat for Governor still has an 82/9 favorability spread with Trump voters.
Of course, listing Lake as the only potential opponent, in the midst of her post-defeat tantrum, is a thumb on the scales. It would be very interesting to test this race with Doug Ducey as the Republican candidate, given that Ducey probably appeals to a decisive segment of the people who would vote for Sinema if the other options are Lake and Gallego. It’s early yet, and I would not recommend putting a ton of stock in PPP’s findings, but the poll at least suggests the peril that an independent Sinema bid presents for Democrats, as well as the potential for Arizona Republicans if they decide they are sick of losing and want to approach this campaign by trying to win it.