A poll released Tuesday shows Donald Trump trailing neurosurgeon Ben Carson in Iowa by five points, 21 to 16. The poll, conducted by Basswood Research on behalf of the Club for Growth, which has been airing an ad knocking Trump across the state of Iowa, is the first since Trump entered the race in June that shows him trailing any other candidate.
Carson and Trump are followed closely by Marco Rubio with 11 points and Jeb Bush and Carly Fiorina with 10 points each, a statistical three-way tie. A full 18 percent say they remain undecided, an indication of how fluid the field remains.
The poll also reinforces what other surveys have measured, which is that Trump’s favorability rating is low (he ranked seventh, with 53 percent favorability), and his unfavorable numbers are high (he ranked second, with 41 percent of respondents saying they had an unfavorable view of him).
The poll was conducted by Basswood Research’s Jon Lerner, who’s a credible and highly-respected pollster on the Republican side. He surveyed 500 likely GOP caucusgoers.