A new round of polls shows Republican Senate candidates leading or tied in four crucial races, as the political environment may be even worse for Democrats than it was in 2010.
“Republicans have expanded their advantage in the final days of the midterm campaign and now hold an 11-point lead among likely voters on the question of which party should control Congress,” a Wall Street Journal survey finds. “Republicans held a seven-point lead on the question at this point in the 2010 election in a Journal/NBC survey, which used a different method to determine which voters were most likely to cast ballots.”
Meanwhile, an NBC/Marist poll shows Republicans leading or tied in states that Democrats have regarded as firewalls for the Senate majority. Senator Kay Hagan (D., N.C.) has fallen into a 43–43 ties with Republican Thom Tillis; Republican state senator Joni Ernst leads Representative Bruce Braley 49–46; and Representative Cory Gardner (R., Colo.) has a one-point lead over Democratic senator Mark Udall.
The NBC/Marist poll points to one trouble spot for Republicans, Kansas, where Senator Pat Roberts trails independent Greg Orman 45–44. But that’s a marked improvement from their last survey of the race, when Orman led by ten.
For Republicans worried about the Democrats’ vaunted Colorado ground game saving a victory for Mark Udall, NBC/Marist has a bit of comforting news.
“Gardner has the advantage with early voters (54 percent to 42 percent), and Udall is up among likely Colorado voters who haven’t cast ballots yet (48 percent to 41 percent),” according to the survey.