Beijing’s campaign to annex Taiwan relies significantly on the Chinese Communist Party’s ability to shape global public opinion.
Chinese diplomats have worked furiously for several years to turn Taiwan into a democratic pariah state, picking off Taipei’s allies and cutting it off from access to international organizations. As Taiwanese ambassador James Lee told me last year, “China is obviously setting the table at the U.N. arena to justify its military operation against Taiwan.” This diplomatic work makes it easier to preemptively weaken the political, economic, and even military pressure that might follow an eventual Chinese assault on the island.
Last year, The Economist reported on China’s diplomatic offensive in Asia, with various countries’ officials saying that Beijing has convinced some Asian governments to blame America for a Chinese invasion:
A Western diplomat reports that around Asia, Chinese envoys call America a provocateur that once accepted Taiwan’s status as a part of China, but now encourages its separatist fantasies. China is succeeding, the diplomat says. In a crisis, many Asian neighbours would blame America and its ally Japan for stirring tensions.
A second diplomat adds that China does not need to win every argument: sowing confusion will do. He suggests that China’s influence networks, and its willingness to use economic coercion, have divided Asia’s political, business and media elites. As a result, many governments would struggle to craft coherent responses to a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
How susceptible is Europe to similar efforts? European governments’ attitudes toward Taiwan have generally seemed to split along lines similar to those shaping the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as the Baltic States and some Eastern and Central European governments have taken forward-leaning stances in support of Taiwan, while Germany and Hungary have worked strenuously to appease Beijing to preserve their economic ties with China.
A new study offers further data points on this question. Last August, the International Republican Institute conducted polling in 13 European countries — mostly Eastern and Central European countries — on public attitudes toward Taiwan and the favored responses to a Chinese attack. The main finding on Taiwan seems to be that across the 13 countries, about 37 percent of respondents said that they don’t know what they think about the situation or that they know nothing at all.
Other responses were split among a smattering of different views: Nineteen percent of people polled believe that Taiwan is a sovereign nation but that the EU should not get involved if China invades; another 8 percent believe that Taiwan is part of China and that the EU should not get involved at all. Among those who support some form of an European response: Seventeen percent backed sanctions to penalize a Chinese invasion, while a further 10 percent said that European countries should provide “military support” in response to such an attack.
On the one hand, it may not be surprising that Europeans are relatively undecided on the Taiwan question. They’re hardly on the frontlines of this brewing crisis. On the other, survey respondents still had relatively well-defined views of China, with 34 percent stating that their opinions of China have worsened over the past year (9 percent said that their impressions had improved).
The upshot seems to be, at least in those 13 countries, that public opinion is very much up for grabs regarding Europe’s response to Chinese aggression.