CNN has released a poll showing that a very narrow majority of Americans (51 percent to 45) support “an immigration bill that would attempt to increase border security and create a path to citizenship for many immigrants who are in this country without permission from the U.S. government.” Already, some supporters of the Gang of Eight’s proposal are crowing that this is good news for the bill, but drilling into the details, there’s less cause for them to celebrate.
But this level of support for the bill is far from inspiring. Many polls conducted earlier in the debate (some of them not describing the bill very accurately) have shown a greater support for a “comprehensive” bill, so this comparatively weaker support could be a sign that opposition to the bill is gaining ground in the broader public. Additionally, many of the groups Republicans need to appeal to in the future are very much split on the measure. Independents are split 48–47, and those making under $50,000 a year (a group Mitt Romney did poorly with in 2012) are divided 49–48; urban voters are split 49 to 48, too. One of the biggest polling splits is in levels of education: Those who attended college approve 57–38, while those who didn’t are opposed 52–44. The poll suggests that people at the economic margins — those who might be most affected by a continued influx of illegal immigrants and a flood of guest workers — seem to have the greatest concerns about the bill. Thus, one wonders how those polled would respond if the questions had explained that the bill will dramatically increase the number of guest-workers who can enter the country.
The CNN poll also asks whether “the main focus of the U.S. government in dealing with immigration policy” should be “creating a path to citizenship for many immigrants who are in this country without permission from the U.S. government” or “increasing border security to reduce or eliminate the number of immigrants coming into this country without permission from the U.S. government.” There, overwhelming majorities in most demographic groups believe enforcement should be the top priority.
Overall, enforcement beats the path to citizenship 62 percent to 36. Independents support enforcement over legalization 65–33; even Democrats only back legalization over enforcement by a single point (50–49), so it is very likely that a majority of Democrats in more conservative-leaning states (e.g., Indiana, Montana, and West Virginia) back enforcement over legalization. Interestingly, support for security over the pathway to citizenship is highest in the Midwest (65–34), a place the GOP will need to lock down to restore its presidential chances, and the Northeast (66–34), where Republicans have been decimated and need to rebuild.
There’s a reason why the Gang of Eight has constantly reiterated how “tough” their bill is on enforcement: That seems to be what the American people want. But if opponents of the Gang’s bill are able to persuade the public that this bill is not so “tough” after all, they could gain the upper hand in this debate.