The Corner

Polls and Primaries

In all seriousness, Kathryn, it would be a mistake to be so quick to dismiss these poll numbers. They have been fairly consistent for more than a year, and because the respondents are Republican primary voters, we can be reasonably sure they are more politically literate than polls of registered voters generally. Giuliani ties with McCain in these polls even though McCain appears constantly in the media and on television while Rudy has deliberately remained scarce. The classic rule of thumb in all primary contests is this: If there’s a frontrunner, the frontrunner wins. Nobody in modern political history has come out of nowhere to take a race away from a serious frontrunner in either party. In 1976, Jimmy Carter won in a crowded field of nobodies, and the same was true in 1988 for Dukakis, in 1992 for Clinton and in 2004 for Kerry. Otherwise, despite spirited challenges, the frontrunners have prevailed — Mondale in ‘84, Gore in 2000. The Republican primary has always gone for the frontrunner — Reagan, Elder Bush, Dole, Younger Bush. That’s why, no matter what the attack dogs are saying, you would be foolish to bet against Hillary being the nominee in 2008. The GOP is in the odd position of having two frontrunners who are so far ahead of everybody else that it has to mean something. That’s why it’s foolish to keep saying, “Rudy can never be the nominee.” Yes, he can. Indeed, I’d say it’s about 90 percent right now that it will either be Rudy or McCain.

John Podhoretz, a New York Post columnist for 25 years, is the editor of Commentary.
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