From a new piece on the homepage looking at the (likely) victory of Henry Cuellar, the only House Democrat who voted against his party’s federal abortion bill:
Since the Dobbs leak on May 2, there’s been little sign that abortion is changing the fundamentals of November’s midterm elections. On May 2, Republicans held a 2.4-point lead over Democrats in the FiveThirtyEight average of “generic congressional ballot” polls; today, more than three weeks after the leak, Republicans hold a 2.3-point lead. Over that same time period, President Biden’s job-approval rating has ticked down a point from 42.0 percent to 40.9 percent, and his disapproval rating has ticked up a couple of points, from 52.3 percent to 54.4 percent.