Some Kerry critics, including I believe Mickey Kaus, have taken comfort in the fact that the senator is still basically tied with Bush in the horse-race polls, despite the terrible news recently for Bush. Well, Andrew Kohut explains in the New York Times today that weak incumbents always tend to be tied around this time with their challengers: “There is no reason to expect a one-to-one relationship between public disaffection with the incumbent and an immediate surge in public support for his challenger.” I don’t know whether he’s right, but if he is, it would be bad news for Bush obviously.