I’m not sure how this plays out nationally, but pollsters now have a trend of being wrong about Florida. Andrew Gillum had a +3.6 lead over Ron DeSantis in the RealClearPolitics average for the governor’s race in 2018. And the average was only that close because it included a much-maligned Trafalgar poll at +3. Bill Nelson was up +2.6 over Rick Scott in the Senate race on Election Day in 2018. Both Democrats were above 50 percent in at least three of the last five polls conducted in the state, and both lost. In 2014, Charlie Crist was a slight favorite over Rick Scott, as well. On October 25 and 31 this year, the RCP average had Biden at 49 percent. It also tightened in recent days because of Trafalgar and Susquehanna polls. The high-quality trusted polls — Quinnipiac: Biden +5, Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +4, CNBC/Change: Biden +3.
Lots still to learn. But one thing is for sure: Moving forward, there is little reason to trust major pollsters in Florida. And that might well end up being the case across many other states.