Republican pollster Jan R. van Lohuizen has argued that, given the trend lines, the GOP should come out in favor of gay marriage. But pollsters Chris Wilson, Chris Perkins, and Bryon Allen say in a newly released memo, “We couldn’t disagree more.”
Yes, the authors concede, the economy is the main issue in this election, and yes, public opinion seems to be moving in favor of gay marriage. But President Obama’s announcement that he favors same-sex marriage has also hurt him, they argue:
Obama’s decision to come out in favor of gay marriage does appear to have hurt him and may matter, in some way, come November.
While a majority (51%) of Americans approve of Obama’s decision to support gay marriage, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll taken on May 10th, 45% disapprove including 44% of Independents and even 25% of Democrats.
Perhaps more importantly, the same poll shows that 26% of Americans are less likely to vote for Obama because of the decision while just 13% are more likely to vote for him.
The vast majority (60%) says the issue makes no difference in their vote.
You can read the whole memo here.