The Corner

Predictions

K-Lo has asked a bunch of us to make predictions, I sent mine in. But I picked the brain of a very good friend of mine who follows these things with much personal and professional passion. He is admittedly an optimist in favor of the GOP. FWIW, here’s the relevant bit from his email (elipses mine):

All right JG, ever the optimist…

1) What will the House look like? (Number split and any additional commentary.)

House: GOP loses 13 seats, pick up 1. Net -12 (see bottom for breakdown)

 2) What will the Senate look like? (Again, number split and any additional commentary.)

Senate: Lose these two seats (OH, PA). Hold either RI or MT.   MO, VA, TN all hold. We pick up one Dem senate seat (MD or NJ, i think the former). Net results. Dems plus 3.

 3) Two surprises of the night.   Texas 22 and Steele. But i’ve got to tell you, the biggest upset would be John Hostettler in Indiana-8.   Every sage has said the race is over. But Hostettler went from 23 points down to seven about three weeks ago, and there’s only been one two week old RT Strategies poll since showing him down …. He didn’t start advertising until 2 weeks ago and if any members are going to be helped by a GOP generic/rally it’s those in solid red districts. Writeup here:  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/indiana_8-33.html   . While his Pelosi radical homosexual agenda radio ad got a lot of ridicule, nationwide, he’s said and done crazier things and always getting reelected…. I think the interesting story here is the decline of accurate polling, particularly in House races. The RT/Majority Watch folks are going to look like fools, and they are the only reason people think that thirty or forty seats are in play. And the generic polling, which has already shown itself to be an incredibly flighty number, will be shown to be even more useless. 

Here’s  my rationale for the House:

Here are the toss up and lean races. An L means i think we lose it. W-L means it’s a tossup. W means we win it. The L-Ws are the only Dem seats in play.

For the 13 R losses, I see:6 Ls, 12 tossups so I’m just betting we win four of those races. And frankly to hold the house, we need to win just four of those 18 seats without winning one D seat which i think is very very doable, in the total absence of new polling numbers in a lot of these R-leaning districts…

Toss Up (13)Leans GOP (22)TX-22: Open (DeLay)  W-L>> NM-1: Wilson W-L>> MN-6: Open (Kennedy) WAZ-8: Open (Kolbe) LNH-2: Bass W>> NY-26: Reynolds WFL-16: Open (Foley) LIN-2: Chocola WCT-2: Simmons WIN-8: Hostettler W-LIN-9: Sodrel WWI-8: Open (Green) WPA-10: Sherwood LPA-6: Gerlach WWA-8: Reichert WCO-7: Open (Beauprez) LCT-4: Shays WVA-2: Drake WOH-18: Open (Ney) LCT-5: Johnson W-LFL-22: Shaw WPA-7: Weldon W-LIL-6: Open (Hyde) W-LKY-3: Northup W-LNY-24: Open (Boehlert) WFL-13: Open (Harris) W-LCO-4: Musgrave WIA-1: Open (Nussle) LAZ-5: Hayworth WKY-4: Davis WNC-11: Taylor W-LOH-1: Chabot WPA-4: Hart WNY-20: Sweeney << W-LCA-11: Pombo << WNV-2: Open (Gibbons) WOH-15: Pryce << W-LOH-2: Schmidt << W-LNY-25: WalshAZ-1: Renzi WNY-29: Kuhl WNY-19: Kelly WPA-8: Fitzpatrick W

 CA-4: DoolittleW

NV-3: Porter W

 

ID-1: Sali W

 

MN-1: Gutknecht W

 

NJ-7: Ferguson WDemocratic SeatsLeans GOP (0)Toss Up (2)Leans Dem (4)GA-12: Barrow <IL-8: Bean L-WGA-8: Marshall << L-WVT-AL: Open (Sanders)IA-3: BoswellIN-7: Carson L-W

Most Popular

Film & TV

Knives Out Takes On the Anti-Immigration Crowd

Since the beginning of the Obama era, the Left has broadcast two contradictory messages on the subjects of race and immigration. The first is that a so-called Coalition of the Ascendant will inevitably displace white Americans as the dominant force in the country’s politics and culture. The second is that ... Read More
Film & TV

Knives Out Takes On the Anti-Immigration Crowd

Since the beginning of the Obama era, the Left has broadcast two contradictory messages on the subjects of race and immigration. The first is that a so-called Coalition of the Ascendant will inevitably displace white Americans as the dominant force in the country’s politics and culture. The second is that ... Read More
From left: Harvard University's Noah Feldman, Stanford University's Pamela Karlan, University of North Carolina's Michael Gerhardt, and George Washington University's Jonathan Turley testify before the House Judiciary Committee hearing on the impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump, December 4, 2019.

The Impeachment Eye Test

To put it mildly, the 1960s were not notorious for juridical modesty. They might compare favorably, though, to Wednesday’s episode of “The Lawyer Left Does Impeachment” at the House Judiciary Committee. Oh, I have no doubt that the three progressive constitutional scholars spotlighted by Democrats yearn in ... Read More
From left: Harvard University's Noah Feldman, Stanford University's Pamela Karlan, University of North Carolina's Michael Gerhardt, and George Washington University's Jonathan Turley testify before the House Judiciary Committee hearing on the impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump, December 4, 2019.

The Impeachment Eye Test

To put it mildly, the 1960s were not notorious for juridical modesty. They might compare favorably, though, to Wednesday’s episode of “The Lawyer Left Does Impeachment” at the House Judiciary Committee. Oh, I have no doubt that the three progressive constitutional scholars spotlighted by Democrats yearn in ... Read More
Culture

The Absurd Crusade against the Salvation Army

We all know some individuals who are so obviously good and kind that we are certain if anyone were to dislike them, that's all we would need to know about the person. We would immediately assume he or she is a bad person. To hate the manifestly good is a sure sign of being bad. Such is the case regarding the ... Read More
Culture

The Absurd Crusade against the Salvation Army

We all know some individuals who are so obviously good and kind that we are certain if anyone were to dislike them, that's all we would need to know about the person. We would immediately assume he or she is a bad person. To hate the manifestly good is a sure sign of being bad. Such is the case regarding the ... Read More
White House

Nancy Pelosi’s Case

Further to the post below, a couple of thoughts on Nancy Pelosi’s statement yesterday. She said this near the beginning: During the constitutional convention, James Madison, the architect of the Constitution, warned that a president might betray his trust to foreign powers which might prove fatal to the ... Read More
White House

Nancy Pelosi’s Case

Further to the post below, a couple of thoughts on Nancy Pelosi’s statement yesterday. She said this near the beginning: During the constitutional convention, James Madison, the architect of the Constitution, warned that a president might betray his trust to foreign powers which might prove fatal to the ... Read More