K-Lo has asked a bunch of us to make predictions, I sent mine in. But I picked the brain of a very good friend of mine who follows these things with much personal and professional passion. He is admittedly an optimist in favor of the GOP. FWIW, here’s the relevant bit from his email (elipses mine):
All right JG, ever the optimist…
1) What will the House look like? (Number split and any additional commentary.)
House: GOP loses 13 seats, pick up 1. Net -12 (see bottom for breakdown)
2) What will the Senate look like? (Again, number split and any additional commentary.)
Senate: Lose these two seats (OH, PA). Hold either RI or MT. MO, VA, TN all hold. We pick up one Dem senate seat (MD or NJ, i think the former). Net results. Dems plus 3.
3) Two surprises of the night. Texas 22 and Steele. But i’ve got to tell you, the biggest upset would be John Hostettler in Indiana-8. Every sage has said the race is over. But Hostettler went from 23 points down to seven about three weeks ago, and there’s only been one two week old RT Strategies poll since showing him down …. He didn’t start advertising until 2 weeks ago and if any members are going to be helped by a GOP generic/rally it’s those in solid red districts. Writeup here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/indiana_8-33.html . While his Pelosi radical homosexual agenda radio ad got a lot of ridicule, nationwide, he’s said and done crazier things and always getting reelected…. I think the interesting story here is the decline of accurate polling, particularly in House races. The RT/Majority Watch folks are going to look like fools, and they are the only reason people think that thirty or forty seats are in play. And the generic polling, which has already shown itself to be an incredibly flighty number, will be shown to be even more useless.
Here’s my rationale for the House:
Here are the toss up and lean races. An L means i think we lose it. W-L means it’s a tossup. W means we win it. The L-Ws are the only Dem seats in play.
For the 13 R losses, I see:6 Ls, 12 tossups so I’m just betting we win four of those races. And frankly to hold the house, we need to win just four of those 18 seats without winning one D seat which i think is very very doable, in the total absence of new polling numbers in a lot of these R-leaning districts…
Toss Up (13)Leans GOP (22)TX-22: Open (DeLay) W-L>> NM-1: Wilson W-L>> MN-6: Open (Kennedy) WAZ-8: Open (Kolbe) LNH-2: Bass W>> NY-26: Reynolds WFL-16: Open (Foley) LIN-2: Chocola WCT-2: Simmons WIN-8: Hostettler W-LIN-9: Sodrel WWI-8: Open (Green) WPA-10: Sherwood LPA-6: Gerlach WWA-8: Reichert WCO-7: Open (Beauprez) LCT-4: Shays WVA-2: Drake WOH-18: Open (Ney) LCT-5: Johnson W-LFL-22: Shaw WPA-7: Weldon W-LIL-6: Open (Hyde) W-LKY-3: Northup W-LNY-24: Open (Boehlert) WFL-13: Open (Harris) W-LCO-4: Musgrave WIA-1: Open (Nussle) LAZ-5: Hayworth WKY-4: Davis WNC-11: Taylor W-LOH-1: Chabot WPA-4: Hart WNY-20: Sweeney << W-LCA-11: Pombo << WNV-2: Open (Gibbons) WOH-15: Pryce << W-LOH-2: Schmidt << W-LNY-25: Walsh W AZ-1: Renzi WNY-29: Kuhl WNY-19: Kelly WPA-8: Fitzpatrick W