Was just talking to a Republican official who doesn’t deny it’s a tough environment, but says (all quotes a little rough), “predictions of our doom are premature.” He discounts the media polls earlier this week that are driving the doom-for-Republicans coverage. He makes three points:
1) “A national measure of generic ballot is not reflective of what we care about in terms of the House.” This has to do with the intense concentration of Democratic voters in Democratic districts. So in Battleground poll not long ago, the national generic ballot had Republicans down 8, but they were really roughly even in Republican-held districts and down 20 in Democratic districts.
2) He says that the make-up of the electorate in the polls is “unlike anything we’ve seen in recent elections.” He says the swing in the electorate has been from plus-2 for Republicans, to plus-4 for Democrats in recent past elections. The media polls have had the electorate from roughly plus-5 for Democrats to plus-13 for Democrats. “If that’s what the electorate is on election day are we going to get our butts kicked? Yes.” But he kind of doubts it. That would mean the composition of the electorate is in “a place it hasn’t been in 25 years.”
3) If you average all the generic questions of the public polls post-Foley, minus the Gallup polls with its wild swing, it is only a 2-point swing toward the Democrats. You’d rather it was the opposite, but it’s not a disaster.
For what it’s worth…