Over at The Volokh Conspiracy, David Bernstein reports a political
consensus in Israel in favor of an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Bernstein makes a strong case that an Israeli attack is likely. Yet attack
or no, we’re going to see huge developments out of Iran in the coming
years. If there’s no preemptive strike and Iran gets the bomb, the balance
in the war on terror will shift, and not in the right direction. And don’t
forget that North Korea likely has a bomb already and is probably making
more. The North Koreans, who already prop up their disastrous economy by
peddling contraband of all kinds, have plenty of reasons to sell their nukes.
Our failure to connect the war in Iraq to these problems is striking. I
recently read a cover editorial in The Economist about the need to stay in
Iraq that said not one word about nuclear proliferation. It wasn’t an
isolated case. The real cost of the missing WMD’s is that our intelligence
failure has put a lid on discussion of the most important reason for being
in Iraq. The administration has let go of half the argument, and the
Democrats’ political game depends on ignoring the threat. Saddam could
have reassembled his WMDs any old time. Worse, he could have bought
completed nukes and/or nuclear material from the North Koreans. Saddam was
already buying banned Korean missiles when we took him out. Given North
Korea’s ability to destroy Seoul with even conventional artillery, we
couldn’t have hit Korea. And given Iran’s larger size and relative ethnic
and political unity, it would have been even tougher to take on Iran than
Iraq. Taking down Saddam was our best shot at sending a signal to
potential rogue nuclear states that they had better fear us. Despite all
our divisions, that signal has gotten through. But unity at home would
make deterrence more effective.
I remember when doves were saying we shouldn’t attack Iraq because our
troops would be subject to chemical and biological strikes. If we hadn’t
gone in, every tinpot dictator would have known he could deter us with the
threat of a few chemical and biological missiles. Now they have to worry
that some cowboy American president will take them down.
Yeah, going into Iraq was the right thing. The real problem is that it
was only the least we could do, and not nearly enough to take care of the
problem. In the game of nuclear terror, I fear it’s the rogue states who
have the advantage. All they need is a bomb or two. Maybe Israel will do
our dirty work for us in Iran. Ahmadinejad’s wild remarks have made that a
lot easier to contemplate politically, not only in Israel, but here and in
Europe. But the Iranians are hiding what can be hidden, and the Koreans
may even now be selling what can be sold. Meanwhile, the Democrats are too
busy purging Joe Lieberman to have figured out we’re at war. Even our
hawks are more focused on the democracy issue than the nuclear
threat. Israel at least understands that they are just a bomb away from
disaster.