The Corner

Put Away Those Calculators

Why would anyone believe the the Democratic nomination race is over or soon to be? The analysts who are fascinated with mathematical models allocating delegates this way or that are missing the point. This is a political process. The Clinton campaign has netted about 48% of the delegates so far. That keeps her in the game. All she has to do is post a reasonable number of victories in the remaining primaries and caucuses to show she is viable, and that Obama is beatable. And even if the superdelegates start moving his way, that will not be decisive. The superdelegates are only stating their intent; nothing is official until the actual votes are cast, and, as we have seen, superdelegates can change their minds. The real struggle will be in the leadup to the Democratic convention and in the committee rooms in Denver. In 1980, Ted Kennedy went to the convention with around 36% of the delegates and still mounted a floor fight. Harold Ickes, now Clinton’s chief delegate hunter, was then in a similar role on the Kennedy campaign. Ickes had a much weaker hand in 1980 than he does today. So how can anyone believe this struggle is not going all the way to Denver? It will only end if Hillary Clinton loses the will to keep fighting. It all comes down to her inner strength, her belief in herself and her destiny. Right now the only person who can prevent Hillary from taking this all the way is Hillary.


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