Russian president Vladimir Putin has been a shambolic — yet brutal — commander in chief during his war in Ukraine. The Russian armed forces have incurred nearly 19,000 casualties and lost over 400 tanks while failing to capture Kyiv and other major cities. Their burnt armored columns now dot the Ukrainian countryside as naked monuments to this failure. Yet, “to err is human; to blame it on someone else is politics,” said Hubert Humphrey. Ever the shrewd politician, Putin aims to blame supposed Ukrainian transgressions for the war’s protraction.
In a press conference on Tuesday, Putin proclaimed that the Istanbul process — i.e., ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, hosted by Turkey — has reached “a dead end.” He accused Ukraine of “deviating from the Istanbul agreements . . . in respect of Crimea, Sevastopol, and the Donbas,” without providing details. It doesn’t take a genius to infer what he meant: Ukraine (correctly) refused to cede its full sovereignty over these Russian-occupied territories as a condition for peace. Such a demand was a non-starter from the very outset; these territories were Ukrainian, to which Russia has no claim. Putin’s insistence here is high chutzpah. Hence, his abrupt dismissal of the talks is a bald move to save face — vaguely blaming Ukraine for the impasse, which he hopes can stave off embarrassment.
Meanwhile, Putin says that Russia’s military operation will “continue to [its] complete end.” Under the new leadership of General Alexsandr Dvornikov, known best for destroying Aleppo in Syria, Russian forces are beginning a second offensive in the Donbas. As the U.S. Department of Defense reports, an “eight-mile convoy” of Russian troops and armor is heading to the region. After the failed invasion of Kyiv, Putin’s pivot has been to enlarge territories of the Russian-backed Donetsk and Luhansk separatist republics, giving him proxy control of Ukraine’s East.
His “dead end” comment, in this context, becomes a pretext — to justify a new offensive when diplomacy has supposedly failed. A flimsy casus belli. But that doesn’t mean the next phase will be any less bloody.