Here is an insider’s take on the races for vulnerable Republican seats, based on my rough notes from a phone conversation just now. I’ve put in blue the seven seats that look like they’re gone. (Also, whenever this source says something like “he/she should be fine” the reference is to the Republican candidate.) For what it’s worth…
AZ-5: J.D. Hayworth v. Harry Mitchell; he should be fine.
AZ-8: Randy Graf v. Gabrielle Giffords; A goner.
CA-4: John Doolittle v. Charles Brown; should be fine.
CA-11: Richard Pombo v. Jerry McNerney; should be fine. “Up in polls.”
CO-4: Marilyn Musgrave v. Angie Paccione; should be fine.
CO-7: Rick O’Donnell v. Ed Perlmutter; looks bad. Current poll is a tie, but no one believes it.
CT-2: Rob Simmons v.Joe Courtney; “I think Simmons is going to win.”
CT-4: Chris Shays v. Diane Farrell; “Shays is probably the one in Connecticut most likely to lose.”
CT-5: Nancy Johnson v. Chris Murphy; “I think she’s ok. She’s running the kind of contrast campaign that Republicans should run. She’s really mean.”
FL-13 : Vern Buchanan v. Christine Jennings, “ I don’t know, could go south.”
FL-16: Joe Negron v. Tim Mahoney; looks gone.
FL-22: Clay Shaw v. Ron Klein; “Last I heard, Shaw was still doing ok.”
IA-1: Mike Whalen v. Bruce Braley; “Probably more optimistic of late than before. Wrong candidate won the Republican primary.”
IL-6: Peter Roskam v. Tammy Duckworth; Roskam should win.
IN-2: Chris Chocola v. Joe Donnelly; the problem in all the Indiana races is the unpopularity of Governor Mitch Daniels. Chocola is “an awesome, awesome guy.” But the image the Democrats have painted of him as a “golfing, tanned, country club man” might stick.
IN-8: John Hostettler v. Brad Ellsworth;“We’ve written Hostettler off every cycle, but he always wins.” The problem is he’s running against a “better candidate” this time. “I’ll never write Hostettler off, even though his poll numbers look horrible.”
IN-9: Mike Sodrel v. Baron Hill; “Initially Sodrel was thought the most likely to lose of the Indiana congressman, but he is now in the best shape of all three.”
KY-2: Ron Lewis v. Mike Weaver; Lewis should win.
KY-3 : Anne Northup v. John Yarmuth; “Anne knows how to win.”
KY-4: Geoff Davis v. Ken Lucas;“Everyone tells me we’re fine there.”
MN-1: Gil Gutknecht v. Tim Walz; “I don’t know. He needs money and that’s a new one on the radar screen. He should be able to pull it out.”
MN-6: Michele Bachmann v. Patty Wetterling; “It’s really in play. It’s the kind of Republican seat we have to win to keep the majority.”
NC-11: Charles Taylor v. Heath Shuler; “Taylor has a tough race every time.” But he could lose this time.
NH-2: Charlie Bass v. Paul Hodes; “I’m told Bass is ok.”
NJ-7: Mike Ferguson v. Linda Stender; should be ok.
NM-1: Heather Wilson v. Patricia Madrid; “Mixed reports.” “She always had the mom factor in her favor, but now there’s some involvement in the Foley scandal and she’s running against another woman.”
NV-2: Dean Heller v. Jill Derby; “Nobody has put that on the death list.”
NV-3: Jon Porter v. Tessa Hafen; “Porter has been running a tough race from the beginning.” The problem is all the “new voters in the district.”
NY-20: John Sweeney v. Kirsten Gillibrand; “Not widespread panic.”
NY-24: Ray Meier v. Mike Arcuri; “I’m worried about that. Meier is not running the contrast campaign he needs to be.”
NY-25: James Walsh v. Dan Maffei; “It’s on the watch list, but I can’t image Walsh would lose.”
NY-26: Tom Reynolds v. Jack Davis; “Reynolds is back up in the polls.” Should win.
NY-29: Randy Kuhl v. Eric Massa; “Definitely one to watch, but no reason to believe it’s lost.”
OH-1: Steve Chabot v. John Cranley; “Not a lot of chatter of late, but in general Ohio numbers have been going up, getting a little better.”
OH-2: Jean Schmidt v. Victoria Wells Wulsin; N/A
OH-15: Deborah Pryce v. Mary Jo Kilroy; “I don’t know”—in the sense that she might lose.
OH-18: Joy Padgett v. Zack Space; N/A
PA-4: Melissa Hart v. Jason Altmire; “Hart should win,” but she’s not running a great campaign.
PA-6: Jim Gerlach v. Lois Murphy; N/A
PA-7: Curt Weldon v. Joe Sestak; gone, “for obvious reasons.”
PA-8: Mike Fitzpatrick v. Patrick Murphy; should be ok.
PA-10: Don Sherwood v. Chris Carney; gone, “for obvious reasons.”
TX- 22: Shelley Sekula-Gibbs v. Nick Lampson; this is the DeLay seat. Texas people haven’t given up on it entirely, but Sekula-Gibbs is not the most aggressive candidate and the seat is probably gone.
TX-23: Henry Bonilla v. Ciro Rodriguez; “I haven’t heard any problems on that front.”
VA-2: Thelma Drake v. Phil Kellam; “Drake should win, her ads have been awesome.”
WA-8: Dave Reichert v. Darcy Burner; “on the watch list.”
WI-8: Gard v. Kagen; “should be ok.”