Veteran Nevada-based journalist Jon Ralston, who knows the state better than anyone, looks at the early-vote numbers:
Twelve days of early voting in the books, and I think it’s safe to say now after years of watching these numbers/trends: The Dems are in trouble in Nevada.
The reason is simple: Mail is way down in Clark County from 2020, and the numbers are just not big enough to boost the Clark firewall after the GOP wins in-person early voting every day.
Ralston goes on to say that the election is “far from over,” but read his full analysis here to see why the early-vote numbers don’t look good for Democrats.
In the Senate race, Republican Adam Laxalt leads Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto by 1.9 points in the RealClearPolitics average of polls.
Emerson is something like a gold standard in Nevada
2020 Prez: Biden +2 (Actual Biden +2)
2020 Gov: Sisolak +1 (Actual Sisolak +4)
2018 Sen: Rosen +4 (Actual Rosen +5)
2016 Prez: Clinton +1 (Actual Clinton +2)
2016 Sen: CCM +1 (Actual CCM +2) https://t.co/sLlBQA4yAt— Political Election Projections (@tencor_7144) November 2, 2022