Much of the debate on the right about why the elections went so badly have pitted tariffs against the Iran war. There’s a faction of the Republican Party that supports the tariffs but not the war, and another that supports the war but not the tariffs, and so they’re arguing about whose project contributed most to the defeats.
I think the Iran war did more political damage because it had a larger effect on gas prices and thus living standards. Trump and the Republicans were in bad shape before the war, in part because of tariffs, and in catastrophic shape after it. But both policies obviously hurt Republicans politically. Both policies are unpopular. The public blames both for higher prices.
Both are also inextricable from the unpopular elements of Trump’s character. Trump has been high-handed on both issues, refusing to go to Congress or build public support for his policies. He has been more intent on preserving his freedom of action than maintaining coherent and defensible positions.
There’s another issue tied to Trump’s character that jumped out in the exit polls. MBD rightly points out that 74 percent of all exit poll respondents called the Iran war a crucial or major issue in their vote, and 63 percent of that subset of respondents voted for Democrats. An even higher percentage of all respondents — 90! — cited corruption as a crucial or major issue, and 56 percent of them voted for Democrats. One thing Democrats definitely have a mandate to do is investigate self-dealing in and around the Trump administration.