Jonah, The Guardian’s Duncan Campbell (whose “partner” is, I believe, the activist actress Julie Christie) addresses that question today, but in a remarkably slapdash fashion. He says that “some believe” the death toll will be in the hundreds, but his only source for that is…another reporter. He also cites the WTC fatalities as proof that it’s not unusual for initial estimates to be overestimates, but fails to mention that the initial tsunami estimates proved to be significant underestimates. And I think the only reasonable response to his final sentence is, “You don’t say.” Nevertheless, the column has some use in that it underlines the fact that any figures, from Nagin or anyone else, are simply guesses.