First, beware of these early exit polls. They just aren’t that accurate. They can often get the order of the candidates’ finish right but the specific percentages wrong — which would obviously be problematic in the Oklahoma three-way. Second, I don’t agree with Michael Graham that an Edwards win in Oklahoma wouldn’t change the dynamics of the race much. If he wins, the media will treat it as the surprise of the night, particularly if he also does in the 20s range in Missouri. He’ll get a lot of the subsequent attention, in part because the press is bored with Kerry already and partly because they all desperately want the horserace to continue. Plus, if Clark and Lieberman get out, the situation clearly changes in the next several primary states where Kerry is coasting from his frontrunner status but has done little campaigning or advertising yet.
Again, could all be based on faulty early guesswork.