The Corner

Re: Giuliani on Top

Ramesh, I think you hit the nail square on the head. Huckabee’s rise is good news for Giuliani, about whose Iowa prospects no one had high expectations in the first place. The biggest threat to him was a conservative alternative winning the early states and going one-on-one with him in Florida and on Super-Duper Tuesday. A Romney loss in IA and mixed results elsewhere is all good for Rudy. He’s in it for the long haul. As for the GOP as a whole, things get pretty shaky, I think. If either Giuliani or Huckabee win the nomination, a large element of the longstanding GOP coalition (social cons and economic cons, respectively) can be motivated to turn out in November only by fear of the Democratic nominee. Fear cuts deeper than swords, as George R.R. Martin would say, but inspiration cuts deeper still.

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