The Horse Race Blog, which I know you’re all watching, has similar numbers. He expects the margin to be 51.0 to 47.3 with Bush garnering 306-327 EVs while Kerry gets 211-232. Bush carries Florida, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Kerry carries Michigan, New Hampshire, Hawaii, and New Jersey. Pennsylvania is too close to call. Jay Cost believes the partisan sample will more closely resemble 2002 than 2000. He also thinks GoTV will trump Democratic 527s in the ground game.