Many thanks to a pal at the Congressional Research Service, who dug up a
lengthy report on “NAFTA at ten.”
In summary: “For Mexico, the Carnegie Endowment and the World Bank note
that real wages are lower than when NAFTA began, but conclude that it was
not the
cause. Decomposing the trend shows that Mexico experienced a 25% fall in
real wages after the 1994 peso crisis. Real wages began a steady recovery in
1997 and are approaching 1994 levels. Interestingly, the World Bank study
showed that those Mexican states tied to FDI [= Foreign Direct Investment],
exports, and maquilas had higher and faster-growing wages than other
states.”