A reader brings up something I failed to. Namely, the meticulously well-coiffed 300-pound gorilla in the room:
. . . as an Illinois resident for my whole life (pity welcome), I would add to your post this thought: the biggest factor in Brady’s favor this fall will be the ongoing Blago trial which is set to begin in June. With the recent governor answering for his theatrical-style corruption in a Chicago courtroom all summer long and surely into the fall, the long-suffering citizens of the state of Illinois will have ample reminders of the reasons to vote Republican. This effect should also help Kirk in his Senate race.