Jonah:
I wouldn’t put too much stock in the oil crisis talk. While a political disruption (the collapse of Saudi Arabia) would indeed roil the market severely (but that’s what our Strategic Petroleum Reserve is for, not to mention the military), a political shock should not be confused with an intrinsic shortage of oil, which is what Erdman does with his reference to “Hubbert’s Peak.” This “production peak” talk has been recycled enough times to close down several landfills. It is no more likely to be true in the next few years than it was in 1970 when it first surfaced. I’m planning to write a long piece about this whole business over the summer.