Agreed with Ramesh and K-Lo. We’ll see from the details of the poll whether they built-in the write-in factor in some way.
Though, according to the Alaska elections director, the standard for counting Murkowski write-in votes will be decidedly liberal.
From a Sept. 9 Times article:
Aides are exploring what variations of her name — Lisa? Senator Murkowski? Lisa M.? — would be acceptable to election officials in a write-in campaign. Although Ms. Murkowski has one of the most recognizable last names in Alaska politics, it is not necessarily easy to spell.
“If I can determine voter intent, then the ballot would be counted accordingly,” Gail Fenumiai, the state elections director, wrote in an e-mail.
UPDATE: Here’s the wording from the poll:
1/1a. If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Scott McAdams, the Democrat and Joe Miller, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for or would you write in the name of Lisa Murkowski, who is also running? (IF UNSURE:) As of today, who do you lean more toward? (RANDOM ORDER).
If they had polled just Miller and McAdams and given a blank write-in space, one assumes things would have gone differently. Still, this can only energize the Murkowski camp.