“Was it not ever thus?” asks Jonah. I doubt it. I doubt, that is, that a state’s white fertility rates correlated as strongly with its Republican percentage of the presidential vote in 1960 as it does now. Nor were inner-ring suburbs as Democratic in 1988 as they are now, or rural areas as Republican as they are now. Sure there are a lot of interrelated factors here, such as religiosity and family size, so it might be hard to say precisely what’s driving the change, but surely there has been some change.
Attention, journalists of America: Time is running out! You have under three weeks left to publish your last batch of over-the-top pre-election puff pieces on Texas Democrat/cross-country liberal sensation/wing-and-a-prayer Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke! It is here that we must face the difficult truth: ... Read More
I must have missed something: Was there some kind of all-hands white-people meeting at which we voted to kick the Democrats out? Elizabeth Warren, Rachel Dolezal, Beto O’Rourke — what’s up with all the ethnic play-acting? Isn’t cultural appropriation supposed to be a bad thing among progressives? Isn’t ... Read More
Way back in January, I went through the then-34 seats where a Republican incumbent was retiring and concluded that most were in deeply red districts and not likely to flip to Democrats. Pollsters and media organizations are less inclined to conduct surveys of House races, both because there’s less public ... Read More
Jasper, Ind. — It’s not easy to get out to Jasper. The closest airport, Louisville International, is in another state, and it’ll take an hour or two on a series of winding two-lane highways before you find yourself crossing the railroad tracks in the 15,000-person Indiana town. But that’s how Mike ... Read More