David, your data on October 2003 are absolutely no guide to today. John Kerry may have been in fifth place, but he was 6 points off the lead — and the leader had a grand total of 16 percent. Hillary has 53 percent. Rudy Giuliani has 34 percent. In other words, there was no real national frontrunner in the Democratic party in October 2003 and there are unquestioned frontrunners — one in colossally good shape, the other in more questionable shape — this time.
Anyway, it’s not always a momentum game. If it were, Tom Harkin and Pat Buchanan would be opening presidential libraries.