An email: “Bush doesn’t really need two of FL, OH, PA. EV from last time for Bush are 278. Ohio is 20, Wisconsin is 10. MN is 10. IA is 7. NM is 5. So IA and WI could substitute for Ohio even if Bush also loses NH (4). He’d then have 278-20+17-4 or 271. If he wins Ohio instead of Florida the same combination would give him 268. Replacing Florida would be tougher, but still possible.”
RP: I didn’t mean to endorse the idea that Bush has to win two of Fla/Penn/Ohio–but if he doesn’t, I would think the likelihood of his carrying Iowa and Wisconsin would drop.
Another email: “And who is ahead in Ohio and PA? Kerry. I think Bush is in trouble.” This emailer adds, w/r/t the Time poll, that it had Bush 6 points up among likely voters nationally in a poll taken October 25-26, 2000. Which is certainly worth remembering.