An analysis from a smart correspondent closely watching the Ukranian elections:
I think this has been reported several places at least in part but yesterday the Razumkov Center, which has done polling during the election campaign, publicized its latest poll numbers.
In a sample of 2,013 adult citizens taken November 25-29, the Razumkov poll shows that of those people who would participate in a third round (or repeat second round) of voting for the presidency, Yushchenko would take 56% of the vote and Yanukovych 40%. This is the largest margin to date between the two candidates.
This could explain why the Kuchma regime and Yanukovych too have floated the theme of a new election (remember the distinction between “new election” and “revote.” They want to field another candidate, who they believe can close the 16-point margin that currently exists between Yushchenko and Yanukovych.
Several candidates come to mind for Kuchma: Former National Bank Chairman Serhiy Tyhypko and Rada Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn. Both could, according to Presidential Administration logic, compete with Yushchenko. Tyhypko said yesterday he would not rule out a presidential run. Lytvyn said he wants to remain speaker until 2006.
Even more important in the polling — while before more citizens believed Yanukovych would become President not because he won the vote, but because he stole the election and got away with it. Now, the poll shows, 30% of the citizens believe Yanukovych will win the third round compared to 45% for Yushchenko. Previously the numbers were 58% Yanukovych would win compared to 19% Yushchenko would win.
These same numbers have most likely been given to the President by the Security Service, which also conducts sociological surveys.
Yushchenko continues to stand on repeat voting in the next 2-3 weeks. Polish President Kwasniewski announced yesterday that his 5-point plan also has a proposal for a repeat vote either the 19th or 26th of December. We’ll see how talks in Kyiv develop today.