If you give the battleground states to the candidate leading in the polls right this minute in the realclearpolitics.com poll averages, the score is Bush 266, Kerry 252, with Ohio an absolute tie. But that concedes to Kerry MN, WI, MI, NH, HI, and ME. If Kerry wins Ohio, all Bush would need to do is win any of those states and he’d still win. Indeed, if Bush wins Michigan, he can afford to lose not only Ohio but any one of the small swing states (NH, HI, NM).
Bottom line is that Bush must win one of the FLOHPA states while Kerry must win two. But even if Kerry wins two he’s not a lock. If Bush wins two he wins no matter what. I know lots of people already know this, but it’s worth reminding folks.