The Corner

Recall Predictions

What matters now? Turnout. Although the groping charges don’t seem to have moved Arnold’s poll numbers, they’ve no doubt energized some Davis supporters while disheartening some Schwarzenegger backers. The former are now a little more likely to turn up at the polls, the latter a little more likely to stay home–or to vote for McClintock. Over the weekend, it looked as though the recall and Arnold would both win by double digits. I’d still predict a very substantial victory for both, but not quite a blowout.

Recall: 54 percent

Arnold: 36 percent

Bustamante: 30 percent

McClintock: 16 percent

Peter Robinson — Peter M. Robinson is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution.

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