There was a stretch in mid-May when Donald Trump was doing rather well in national polling – up by 3 in the Fox News poll, up 5 in Rasmussen, up 2 in the ABC News/Washington Post poll. Talk of a delegate insurrection in Cleveland died down, and fears of Trump losing badly enough to cost the GOP control of the Senate or House subsided.
Now Trump is down 3 in the Fox News poll and down 4 in Rasmussen. Today’s new Bloomberg poll puts Trump down by 12, the most recent Reuters has Trump down 8 and the most recent Economist/YouGov has him down 3.
Trump fans will undoubtedly contend it’s all a vast conspiracy of pollsters to paint Trump as doing less well than he really is; like the man they adore, they insist all polls showing him ahead are reliable and accurate; once those same pollsters show Trump trailing, they become part of a vast left-wing media conspiracy again.
We’ll see if subsequent polls show a widening lead for Hillary Clinton. It may be that Trump’s stretch of small leads stemmed more from disgruntled Bernie Sanders supporters resisting Hillary than a genuine, durable polling strength on the GOP nominee’s part. Since late May, Trump’s been consistently polling in the high 30s and low 40s.
You sure you want to go ahead with this, Republican convention delegates?