Tuesday’s election results were a disaster for the White House and the Democratic party. Not only did the Obama coalition of young voters and minorities not return to the polls (African-American turnout fell from 20 to 16 percent of the electorate in Virginia, for example, while the youth vote fell by 50 percent from 2008), but independents abandoned Obama’s favored candidates in droves. Chris Christie carried indies by a 58–30 percent margin in a three-way race, and Bob McDonnell won independents two-to-one.
Perhaps that is why the White House spin machine — personified by David Axelrod and David Plouffe — went into overdrive to suggest that truly salient fact that came out of 2009 was the impending civil war between conservatives and moderates in the Grand Old Party.
This is utter nonsense. I certainly understand the desperation of surveying the wreckage after election night and looking for any silver lining in the disastrous outcome. But NY-23 was an aberration, not a pattern, and in so far as it represented any trend at all, it was a positive one for conservatives and ultimately for the Republican party.
First, NY-23 was a special election caused by the selection by Obama of former Congressman John McHugh as Secretary of the Army. Under party rules, the GOP nominee was selected by a an executive committee of county chairmen in the district — not by primary. Their selection, Dede Scozzafaza, was not only to the left of her own party and the district, she was actually to the left of the Democratic nominee, Bill Owens. Scoz favored same-sex marriage and had voted for it twice in the state Senate (a position to the left of that of Barack Obama), while Owens demurred on gay marriage, favoring civil unions instead. Owens opposed card-check, Scoz favored it. Not surprisingly, conservatives chose to support Conservative nominee Doug Hoffman, and Scozzafaza’s campaign imploded.
It was an important message for conservatives to send to the Republican party. This was not a “raging war” on moderates in the GOP, as some in the media and the Democratic party have tried to claim. Everyone understands Reagan’s dictum that an 80 percent friend is not a 20 percent enemy. But conservatives cannot be expected to knock on doors and make phone calls for a candidate to the left of Barack Obama on key issues facing their state and nation.
I spoke to a Democratic campaign consultant who was involved in NY-23, and he told me he could not believe that the Republicans had nominated someone so far to the left, thus dividing the party. He also told me that their polling showed that Hoffman was on his way to victory until Scoz endorsed Owens in the closing days of the campaign. That, again, is an aberration, unlikely to be repeated in many key races in 2010 or beyond. It does happen (recall Sen. John Warner’s support for Marshall Coleman in the 1994 U.S. Senate race in Virginia between Oliver North and Chuck Robb), but rarely.
The more likely future for the GOP was seen in Virginia, where a stalwart conservative, Bob McDonnell, won the strong backing of prominent moderates like former Congressman Tom Davis, Bobbie Kilberg, and John Warner. McDonnell never trimmed his philosophical sails and never back-tracked on his pro-family, tax-cutting, pro-growth views, but his moderate temperament and inclusive leadership style attracted the support of not only moderate Republicans and 2 out of every 3 independents, but even prominent Democrats like the Sheila Johnson, ex-wife of BET founder Bob Johnson. I never heard a single complaint from moderates in the party about McDonnell’s conservative views or his background as a Regent University graduate or favorite of the pro-family community. They respected his views and admired his ability to build bridges as a leader and problem-solver. Conservatives should look for more McDonnells in the years to come if they truly want to become a majority again.
The Republican party is not a church. It does not promulgate doctrine and then exclude those who fail to share it. But political parties must stand for something, or they will be unable to generate enthusiastic support from the volunteers needed to burn shoe leather and calories winning competitive elections. That was the real lesson of NY-23 for the Grand Old Party: Stand for your principles.
— Ralph E. Reed Jr. is president of Century Strategies and the former head of the Christian Coalition.
EDITOR’S NOTE: For more reactions to the rumors of a civil war in the GOP, see our symposium here.