In just a few hours, all the predictions and speculation will be completely irrelevant but here are a few thoughts regardless:
I think the risk for Trump is that he gets some substantive question he’s not prepared for and visibly flails. I know, I know — he’s not about policy, he’s much bigger than that, etc., etc. But it’s one thing to respond with vague evasions in the average TV interview, it’s another to do it on the stage tonight, with the shrewd, tough interlocutors he’s going to face from Fox News.
It’s a high-stakes night for Jeb, if for no other reason than the media has made it one. But he’s dragging a bit with voters, in addition to the media putting itself on high alert for gaffes. So the imperatives for him tonight: Sound conservative and be flawless.
Walker is the best positioned of the candidates, I believe. He already has a pretty good base of support, so he doesn’t have to swing for the fences to make an impression. The doubts about him are whether he’s ready for the big stage and fluid enough on national issues. If he turns in a solid performance, he’s a winner.
As for the others toward the outside of the stage, if I were advising them, I’d tell them to avoid, if possible, tangling with Trump, although the temptation has to be there for a Kasich or a Christie. Since Trump doesn’t play by the rules and is a master showman with a knack for the put-down, the risks of any exchange with Trump are very high, without much of an upside. It’s rare — think Newt in South Carolina — that a candidate has a moment on a debate stage that puts a rocket-booster on his campaign. It’s best to constantly perform well — think Huckabee 2008 — and trust voters to notice.
I don’t discount 5 p.m. At that event, I’d look for Carly to do well. She’s excelled on every stage she’s been on in this campaign so far, and I doubt this will be any different.