NBC’s First Read has a useful break-down. Obviously, March 15 is the last line of defense:
- Trump currently has a 64-delegate lead over his nearest competition: Trump 81, Cruz 17, Rubio 17, Kasich 8, Carson 5
- Trump could emerge with 100-plus delegate lead after Super Tuesday: Trump 289, Rubio 184, Cruz 154, Kasich 53, Carson 41 (assuming a Trump 35%, Rubio 28%, Cruz 23%, Kasich 8%, Carson 6% proportional split of delegates)
- If Trump wins Florida and Ohio, he’s more than halfway to nomination: And if Trump wins the winner-take-all states of Florida and Ohio on March 15, he’s at 650 delegates — more than half of the 1,237 needed to win the GOP nomination (That assumes Trump wins 35% of the delegates up for grabs in the March 5–12 contests, as well as 35% of the proportional states on March 15.) Trump 650, Rubio 340, Cruz 278.
- If Rubio wins Florida and Ohio, he’ll have a small lead over Trump: But if Rubio wins winner-take-all Florida AND Ohio, Rubio emerges with a *slight* overall delegate lead: Rubio 505, Trump 485, Cruz 278
- If Kasich wins Ohio, Trump will have slight lead: But if Kasich wins Ohio and Rubio wins Florida, it’s Trump 485, Rubio 439, Cruz 278, Kasich 148