An Update on the Delegate Math

The delegate math: How a contested convention could happen: Want to see how the Republican Party is likely to wind up with either 1) Donald Trump as the clear favorite to win the GOP presidential nomination, or 2) a contested convention? Well, here’s the delegate math: 

 

Trump holds an 88-delegate lead over his closest competitor, Ted Cruz, according to NBC News’ delegate count.

Donald Trump 325 (45 percent of all delegates)

Ted Cruz 237 (33 percent)

Marco Rubio 117 (16 percent)

John Kasich 27 (4 percent)

 

If you assume that the upcoming proportional contests from March 5-12 (including Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan and Mississippi) break down how the previous 15 races did, you end up with these delegate totals:

Trump 485

Cruz 355

Rubio 174

Kasich 41

 

Then on March 15, if Trump captures the winner-take-all races of both Florida (99 delegates) and Ohio (66 delegates) and wins 45 percent of the rest of the delegates on that day, the totals become:

Trump 741

Cruz 422

Rubio 206

Kasich 49

In that case, Trump needs to win 50 percent of remaining delegates to get to the magic number of 1,237, which is more than doable with Rubio and Kasich likely dropping out after losing their home states.

 

But if, say, Trump wins Florida but loses Ohio to John Kasich, the numbers become:

Trump 675

Cruz 422

Rubio 206

Kasich 115

In that case, Trump needs to win 57 percent of remaining delegates to get to 1,237 — still doable.

 

But if Rubio wins Florida and Kasich wins Ohio, the delegate totals are:

Trump 576

Cruz 422

Rubio 305

Kasich 115

In that case, Trump still holds the delegate lead. But he needs to win 66 percent of remaining delegates to get to 1,237 — and that could be a hard climb.