The Delegate Race

Here’s the latest count from First Read:

Trump currently has a 95-delegate lead over Cruz

Trump 459 (44%)

Cruz 364 (35%)

Rubio 153 (15%)

Kasich 54 (5%)

 

If Trump wins FL and OH

Trump 721

Cruz 441

Rubio 186

Kasich 65

Trump needs to win 52% of remaining delegates to reach 1,237 magic number

 

If Trump wins FL but loses OH to Kasich

Trump 655

Cruz 441

Rubio 186

Kasich 131

Trump needs to win 59% of remaining delegates to reach 1,237 magic number

 

If Trump loses FL to Rubio and loses OH to Kasich

Trump 556

Cruz 441

Rubio 285

Kasich 131

Trump needs to win 69% of remaining delegates to reach 1,237 magic number

And here’s Mark Murray on why Trump won’t clinch soon even if he wins Florida and Ohio next week:

Donald Trump currently has a 95-delegate lead over his closest competitor Ted Cruz, 459–364, according to NBC’s count. If he wins both Florida and Ohio next week (and wins the other delegates at the percentage he’s currently getting), he will stand at 721 delegates — 516 short of the magic 1,237 number to clinch the nomination.

So to reach 1,237 delegates before June 7 — when California and four other states hold their primaries — Trump would need to win about 80 percent of the delegates up for grabs between March 16 and May 24. And that’s unlikely to happen, even under the best circumstances for Trump if he continues to have an opponent (say Cruz and/or John Kasich).