The Corner

Republicans Still Looking Strong Among Likely Voters

In the second week of in-depth polling on generic congressional preferences, Gallup shows Republicans staying strong among crucial likely voters and independents:

Late September-Early October 2010: Vote Preferences in 2010 Congressional Elections, Various Turnout Scenarios

. . .Among voters Gallup estimates to be most likely to vote at this point under either a higher- or lower-turnout scenario, Republicans maintain substantial double-digit advantages. In Gallup’s higher-turnout scenario, Republicans lead 53% to 41%. In Gallup’s lower-turnout scenario, Republicans lead 56% to 39%. These likely voter estimates are based on respondents’ answers to seven turnout questions, with the results used to assign a “likelihood to vote” score to each registered voter and, in turn, to create hypothetical models of the electorate based on various turnout scenarios.

In addition to turnout, independents’ voting intentions are a critical determinant of the midterm election outcome — particularly relevant, given that more than 90% of Democrats and 90% of Republicans say they will vote for their party’s candidate in the elections. At this point, independents tilt strongly toward the Republican candidate in their district, helping shift the race in the GOP’s direction.

Independents in general this year are more likely to lean toward identifying with the Republican Party than they are to lean toward the Democratic Party. Republican-leaning independents are also more likely to be classified as likely voters than are Democratic-leaning independents. Both of these factors work to the GOP’s advantage among likely voters.

More on the generic congressional ballot here.

And another interesting nugget from Gallup, a graphic representation of responses to the question of how Americans would respond “if someone asked you to describe the federal government in one word or phrase.” The words are sized according to the frequency of response:

Daniel FosterDaniel Foster is a former news editor of National Review Online.

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