It’s looking more and more like he needs a win to cushion the blow of losing New Hampshire, where McCain continues to surge as Rudy fades. My quick glance at the history of RCP polls in New Hampshire suggests there’s always been a combined Rudy/McCain vote that’s in the high 30′s or low 40′s. McCain’s share of it has gained as Rudy has started to disappear toward single digits. It’s interesting what McCain has been able to do over the last few weeks. In 2004, Kerry was dead in New Hampshire and staked everything on Iowa, and ended up surging in New Hampshire too. McCain was dead in Iowa, started to rise in New Hampshire, and on that basis–and all the attention it has given to him–has ticked up in Iowa too. The Romney people have got to be hoping that Thompson can just barely outdistance the Arizona senator for third, but he might not have enough gas in his tank to do it.