A few weeks ago, I entertained the question of whether Governor Ron DeSantis would be able to compete with Donald Trump among rural and non-college voters in a hypothetical 2024 matchup. At least in Florida, the answer appears to be yes.
In 2020, according to CNN exit polls, Trump won rural voters in Florida 61 percent to 38 percent, and voters without a college degree 53 percent to 47 percent. In his landslide reelection on Tuesday, DeSantis did better: 69 percent to 30 percent among rural voters, and 60 percent to 40 percent among those without a college degree.
There are of course differences between 2020 and 2022, in terms of the overall environment for Republicans, the differences between rural voters in Florida and other primary states, and the contrast between running against Charlie Crist and Donald Trump.
That said, this is at least a data point suggesting that DeSantis has a very strong appeal to Trump’s core constituency.