Rudy Giuliani has filed a “statement of candidacy” for president, which simply moves the ball a few more feet toward the race. After two years of basically being tied with John McCain as the frontrunner in a speculative 2008 race for the GOP nod, in the past month Rudy has made his intention to run ever more plain — with the result that in every poll he now has a lead over McCain somewhere between five and eleven points.
Yes, a year is a long time, and yes, he will face withering questioning on all matters, and yes, his golden sheen will tarnish. But at some point Rudy skeptics are going to have to come to grips with the fact that Republican primary voters seem to want to choose him. That is a new phenomenon for someone who has no record of siding with social conservatives on symbolic issues, and it suggests a changed dynamic in the GOP.
As for Hillary, it appears the announcement of her candidacy has solidified her own standing as the far-away frontrunner in the Democratic party. In Iowa, where she paid a visit last week, a new poll shows Hillary suddenly vaulting to the front of the pack, besting John Edwards by 17 points — in a state where he was supposedly leading. And she’s ahead by nearly 30 points in Michigan over Barack Obama.
It’s true for Hillary as well that a year is a long time, yada yada yada. But it’s not that long, guys.