I was a little surprised upon seeing the new Rudy ad on H&C last night. An Iran ad the day after the NIE comes out? Obviously the thing had been in the can for a while, and of course Iran is still a threat. It was slickly produced and Rudy is a convincing tough guy, but it just seemed off. I’ll be curious whether it moves voters. We had been told to wait for Rudy’s numbers to move in New Hampshire until he went up on the air to match Romney. But Rudy has been up on the air for a couple of weeks now in New Hampshire and has continued to slip. I thought that first ad was well done too, but it may be that his New York City record is too well known–and the whole issue too backwards-looking–to move people now. This raises the possibility that Rudy has lost his footing in this race, not just with the New York stories but his message as well (not to mention his increasingly endangered status as national front-runner in the polls). As ever–I speculate, you decide.